Health Dept warns of surge in COVID-19 cases in New Year

December 28, 2020 26 Views No Comment

Morung Express News
Dimapur | December 27

Nagaland reported only 63 COVID-19 cases during the past week (December 19-25), the lowest weekly tally since June-July. However, the state could be in for a considerable surge of COVID-19 cases in the New Year post the festivities.

The state Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), Health & Family Welfare, in its weekly COVID roundup issued on December 26, cautioned, “The state can expect a major surge of cases weeks to days after the festivities unless due precautions are taken by everyone.

It added that social and religious gatherings could turn into super-spreaders unless safety measures are followed strictly.

While stating that isolation and testing for symptomatic and contacts of positive cases is crucial to breaking the chain of transmission, it said, “If you do not name a contact or get tested, you are directly involved in spreading cases in the community.”

The state also reported 4 deaths during the past week. The mortality rate in the state was at 0.65 percent against the national average of 1.45 percent.

61 percent of COVID-19 deaths are below 60 years of age, while 84 percent of cases have co-morbidity with diabetes and hypertension as the most common associated co-morbidities.

Undetected & traced cases
The IDSP further warned of “undetected cases in the community” as detection of cases from among people attending flu clinics continue to rise. These cases, without any history of travel or contact with a positive case, either had or have symptoms or got tested for travel/surgery purposes.

As on December 26, the total of cases detected from Flu Clinics stood at 663 returning a positivity rate of 14 percent.
“This is worrying since it signifies many more undetected cases in the community. One undetected case in a social gathering is enough to cause a super spreader event,” it said.

Traced contacts or in other words, cases from the community also continue to surge. The total of traced positive cases stood at 4848 or 41 percent of the state-wide tally, as on December 27. In July, the percentage of traced cases was 1 percent of the state total at the time. Further 78 percent of the cases detected in between December 19-25 were traced cases from the community.

As per the IDSP, the situation is more critical than earlier days when cases were mostly among returnees.

A crucial factor in community transmission is infected individuals not experiencing symptoms transmitting the virus. It said, “People who have symptoms may self-isolate or seek medical care but those without symptoms may continue to circulate in the community. Those without symptoms have the potential to be super-spreaders.”

There were 8 hospital admissions during the past week. “Increase in COVID-19 hospital admissions signifies increase in moderate, severe and critical cases and undetected transmission in the community,” it said.

High positivity, low testing
Sample positivity rate continues to remain high at 10 percent against the national average of 6.

On a positive note, the weekly positivity rate worked out to 5 percent (out of 1287 samples), the first since September to drop to single digit percentage point. The preceding week’s positivity rate was 10 percent.

The overall high positivity rate was not helped by a sluggish testing rate. Nagaland’s 58.6 tests per thousand population was less than half of the country’s 123.4.

In recovery, the state’s 95.9 percent was at par with that of the country’s 95.7 percent.